Thawj lub lim tiam ntawm lub Cuaj Hli 2026 ua rau cov tswv yim - tus nqi dab neeg pom tau. SHFE aluminium tsoo saum toj no ¥ 24,000 / t thiab tuav; LME peb-hli txhuas kaw lub lim tiam ze $3,318/t tom qab kev sib kho +$23; pom txhuas ntawm Yangtze benchmark luam tawm ¥24,350/t rau lub Cuaj Hlis 3, nce ¥270 hnub-rau-hnub. Phau ntawv LME aluminium warehouse zaum ntawm 245,975 t - ntau- xyoo caum qis - thiab Shanghai pauv cov khoom muag tam sim no yog kaum lub lis piam sib law liag. Ob lub zog tsav tsheb hauv pem teb: qhov muag muag nyiaj daus las tom qab kev ceeb toom muag ADP luam tawm thiab dovish Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve cov cim, thiab cov khoom siv lub cev nruj. Rau CNC machined- cov neeg yuav khoom, qhov tsis sib xws yog qhov no: raw{25}} cov khoom siv tau ruaj khov, tab sis cov nqi qis qis qis qis tau muag thiab kev sib tw ntawm cov khw qib tseem khaus. Daim ntawv hla dhau - dhau los tseem tsis tau ua tiav - uas yog vim li cas thawj ib nrab ntawm lub Cuaj Hli tseem yog tus neeg yuav khoom lub qhov rais.
Daim kab xev Aluminium: Qhov twg cov khoom siv tam sim no
Aluminium qhov chaw thiab cov qauv ntsuas yav tom ntej, Lub Cuaj Hli 1–4, 2026. SHFE thiab LME qhov txiaj ntsig hloov mus rau USD / ton ntawm kev sib tw FX rau hla- kev sib piv kev lag luam; RMB cov duab qhia ib sab.
| Benchmark | Tseeb | Kev Nyeem Ntawv Ua Ntej | Kev taw qhia |
|---|---|---|---|
| SHFE Aluminium 2610 (ua haujlwm) | ¥24,320/t | ¥24,375/t | Tshiab highs, tuav saum toj 24,000 ¥ |
| Yangtze chaw A00 | ¥24,350/t (+¥270) | ¥24,080/t | Cov nyiaj tau txais txiaj ntsig tig zoo |
| LME Aluminium 3M | $3,318/t (+$23) | $3,295/t | Dollar-tsis muaj zog tailwind |
| ADC12 cam khwb cia hlau (sab hnub tuaj Tuam Tshoj) | ¥23,815/t (+¥200) | ¥23,615/t | Ncua nruj nruam txhawb hwm |
| Tom ntej: Alumina SHFE 2610 | ¥2,743/t (+1.33%) | ¥2,707/t | Tus nqi thawb los ntawm bauxite shipping nqi |
| USD/CNY | 6.736 | 6.736 | RMB dav ruaj khov |
Lub zog tseem ceeb yog lub cev tsis txaus, tsis xav xav tau. LME txhuas cov khoom lag luam ntawm 245,975 t zaum nyob rau hauv ntau qhov kawg pom hauv 1990s rau qee lub tsev khaws khoom hauv cheeb tsam; Shanghai cov khoom lag luam txhuas tau tshaj tawm ib feem kaum ncaj nraim txhua lub lis piam poob mus rau kwv yees li 391,500 t, poob ntau dua 12,000 t tshaj qhov stretch. Tus nqi nyiaj ntsuab ntawm Yangtze tau hloov mus rau qhov zoo me ntsis (+ ¥ 15 qhov nruab nrab, thaj tsam c5–b35) tom qab khiav ncaj nraim -rau- luv nqi txog Lub Xya Hli - ib qho teeb meem meej tias kawg - cov neeg yuav khoom tau nqis mus rau hauv. Rau machined- cov neeg yuav khoom ntawm cov khoom siv, qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov kab bille yog dab tsi? kab ntawm koj daim ntawv them nqi tam sim no yog ~ 5-8% siab dua thaum ntxov -Lub Xya Hli, nyob rau saum cov nqi ua haujlwm tau sib tham.
Vim li cas Aluminum Pem Teb yog Nplaim - Daim Duab Khoom Muag
Txhua lub lis piam pauv cov khoom lag luam txhuas, Lub Xya Hli-Lub Cuaj Hli 2026. Ob qho kev sib pauv hloov mus rau ntau- xyoo qis; cov ntaub ntawv taw tes ntawm lub lim tiam 11 qhia txog lub Cuaj Hlis 3 luam tawm.
LME ntawm 245,975 t tsis yog tus lej qis xwb - nws yog tus qauv qis. Ua ke nrog kaum lub lis piam sib law liag ntawm SHFE destocking, lub ntiaj teb aluminium lag luam tab tom khiav ntawm tes-rau- qhov ncauj. Ntxiv rau qhov nruj: Guinea lub caij ntub dej tau khaws bauxite CIF muab ruaj khov ntawm $ 72–73 / dmt, alumina freight los ntawm Africa tau thawb mus rau $ 40 / t, thiab alumina yav tom ntej tsuas yog luam tawm 1.33% nce -hnub. Tus nqi thawb los ntawm cov dej ntws txhais tau hais tias txawm tias qhov chaw aluminium consolidates nyob rau theem tam sim no, cov tswv yim - nqi pem teb ntawm Shanghai sab yuav tsis thim rov qab muaj txiaj ntsig ua ntej Q4.
Lub Macro Tailwind Qab Lub Cuaj Hli Tsiv
Peb lub zog macro tau nthuav qhia lub cev - zaj dab neeg nruj:
US duas tsis muaj zog. Lub Yim Hli ADP ntiag tug- cov ntawv them nyiaj tau tshaj tawm los ntawm +38k, zoo hauv qab +48k kev pom zoo thiab qeeb tshaj plaws ntawm 2026. Ua ke nrog dovish tawm tswv yim los ntawm Fed tus thawj tswj hwm, pub- nyiaj txiag yav tom ntej re- nqi rau lub Cuaj Hlis nce mus txog qhov tshwm sim los ntawm 13 feem pua. Ib tug duas softer yog mechanically txhawb rau duas - nqi hlau thiab txhais ua zog LME prints.
Treasury yields rub rov qab. Cov txiaj ntsig qis dua txhawb nqa nyiaj duas - qhov tsis muaj zog channel thiab txo tus nqi ntawm kev tuav cov khoom muag. Lub hauv paus hlau tau txais kev sib tw, nrog tooj liab, txhuas, thiab tin tag nrho kaw siab dua rau lub Cuaj Hli 3.
Peak- lub caij thov kom muaj tseeb.Daim phiaj nqis peev thiab tshiab - kev xaj hluav taws xob qis qis rov qab. Cam khwb cia-aluminium-alloy social inventory tau ua rau plaub lub lis piam sib law liag - ib qho kos npe tias downstream smelters thiab processors khiav, tsis destocking. Lub pace ntawm qhov kawg-remand recovery yog dab tsi txiav txim seb puas aluminium rallies ntxiv los yog consolidates.
Qhov no txhais li cas rau lub khw hauv pem teb.Cov ntaub ntawv nyoos- cov khoom siv tau ruaj khov thaum ua haujlwm- tus nqi kab tseem sib tham. Lub Cuaj Hlis 3 kev lag luam tshaj tawm qhia tau hais tias thaj chaw cov nqi them nqi muag muag ntawm tus nqi siab aluminium - hauv nruab nrab Tuam Tshoj tau ua lag luam ntawm cov luv nqi ntawm ¥110–150/t tiv thaiv SHFE pem hauv ntej- hli, thiab cov nqi ua cov nqi hluav taws xob tau raug kho downward. Kev txhais lus: koj cov aluminium machined-ib feem quotes nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli Ntuj thaum ntxov tau nqus cov nqi siab dua tab sis tseem nqa cov kev ua haujlwm softer- tus nqi margins raws li cov khw sib tw rau kev txiav txim txaus.
Peev Xwm & Lead-Lub Sijhawm Saib Xyuas - Qhov Chaw Rov Qab Los Ua Ntej
Cov cuab yeej tsim khoom yog coj rov qab.Lub Yim Hli PMI sub-index rau cov cuab yeej tsim khoom luam tawm ntawm 51.4, zaum tob hauv kev nthuav dav dua li qhov sib xyaw 49.8. Cov neeg yuav khoom hauv ntu no - kev lag luam automation, robotics, instrumentation - yog cov uas lawv cov inboxes tau sau ceev tshaj plaws hauv khw.
Siab -tech manufacturing nyeem 52.9.Txawm muaj zog dua li kev tsim khoom siv. Electronics, precision instruments, thiab semiconductor- cov khoom siv uas nyob ib sab zaum hauv lub thoob no. Tight- kam rau ua aluminium thiab stainless qhov feem ntau siv ntawm no yog pom lub peev xwm ntxov tshaj plaws - rub.
Steel- phaj muaj peev xwm ua ntej. Hauv kev txiav hlau, cov pa roj carbon- steel phaj qhov chaw (cov vaj tsev, cov hlua khi, cov phaj txheej txheem siv hauv cov khoom tsim khoom) yog thawj qeb rau kab. Cov khoom siv txhuas tseem muaj chav sib tham vim tias cam khwb cia- cov khoom lag luam alloy yog rov tsim kho dua, qhia tias cov khoom siv hluav taws xob txaus ntws los.
Me - khw lag.Qhov me me -kev lag luam PMI sub- Performance index tseem nyob hauv kev cog lus (47.9). Yog tias koj tau txais los ntawm cov khw me me, coj- lub sijhawm thiab lub peev xwm tseem tsis tau txwv - koj tus nqi qis dua, tab sis koj lub luag haujlwm yuav ua kom muaj peev xwm rau cov ntim ntau dua.
Cov pawg feem ntau nthuav tawm.Tight-ua siab ntev aluminium vaj tse, stainless 304/316 brackets nrog kev kho saum npoo, thiab EDM- cov khoom siv tooj liab ua haujlwm yuav pom muaj peev xwm ua ntej- rub dua li ntxhib - cov pa roj carbon monoxide- cov khoom siv hlau. Npaj Q4 kev yuav khoom nyob ib ncig ntawm no hierarchy.
Kev Txiav Txim Siab ntawm Tus Neeg Yuav Khoom - Peb qhov xwm txheej
Yog tias koj xav tau txhuas qhov chaw hauv Q4
Aluminium tus nqi pem teb tau txav mus. Kev sib xyaw ua ke ntawm ntau- xyoo caum LME cov khoom lag luam qis qis thiab cov nyiaj muag muag txhais tau hais tias ¥ 24,000 SHFE qib tuav raws li nyob ze - lub sij hawm pem teb txawm tias Q4 qhov kev thov tsis ua tiav. Tshaj tawm tam sim no, xauv qhov ntau, thiab paub meej tias koj tus neeg muag khoom qhov kev tsocai tau txheeb xyuas kom pom cov txhuas lossis tsau rau kev khiav. Tsau- nqe lus cog lus zam qhov dhau- los ntawm kev pheej hmoo yog tias txhuas thawb siab dua; indexed daim ntawv cog lus muab rau koj tus nqi pheej yig dua yog tias txhuas retraces.
Yog tias koj xav tau steel lossis stainless qhov hauv Q4
Cov qeb ruaj khov tshaj plaws yog cov hlau. Cov cuab yeej tsim khoom PMI ntawm 51.4 txhais tau tias muaj peev xwm rau steel - phaj brackets thiab vaj tse yuav sau ua ntej thaum qhov kev rov qab nthuav dav. Lead- lub sij hawm txaus ntshai, tsis yog tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv, yog qhov sib txawv los tswj ntawm no. Ua raws li lub sijhawm ua ntej lub quarter es tsis tos rau nruab nrab -Q4 hnub kawg.
Yog tias koj muab tooj liab -, tooj dag-, lossis EDM- ua haujlwm qhov chaw
Tooj liab ntawm LME tau txo qis qis ntawm nws qhov siab tab sis nyob twj ywm txhawb nqa ze rau ntau- xyoo tsis kam; aluminium-bronze alloys taug qab aluminium qhov txav. EDM electrode nqi yog nruab nrab. Txheeb xyuas seb koj li EDM- cov khoom ua tiav raug nqi ntawm qhov hnyav tooj liab lossis daim - tus nqi - cov lus teb hloov lub sijhawm ntawm cov nqi dhau los ntawm -.
Ob lub lis piam tom ntej no tseem ceeb.Ob lub ntsiab lus yuav txiav txim siab seb lub Cuaj Hlis tus neeg yuav lub qhov rais txuas ntxiv lossis kaw thaum ntxov: Lub Cuaj Hli Caixin tsim PMI tso tawm (feem ntau nyob ib puag ncig lub Cuaj Hli 30-Lub Kaum Hli 1) thiab SHFE cov khoom muag txhua lub limtiam luam tawm rau lub Cuaj Hlis 11. Yog tias SHFE txhuas cov khoom lag luam tawg rau kaum -lub lim tiam destreak, tus nqi hauv pem teb tau tawg thiab ua raws li 4} bullish regimes {{101}. Yog tias destocking txuas ntxiv thiab cov nqi ua haujlwm nyob twj ywm, lub qhov rais nthuav dav ntxiv.
Peb lub peev xwm ntawm Machining
| Kev pabcuam | Specification | Sau ntawv |
|---|---|---|
| 3/4-Axis CNC Milling | Txog li 1,050 × 650 × 600 mm Kev kam rau siab ± 0.01mm |
Brackets, vaj tse, daim hlau, enclosures |
| 5-Axis CNC Milling | Mus txog ø600 mm Kev kam rau siab ± 0.005mm |
Cov impellers, qhov chaw ntawm cov qauv, complex geometry |
| CNC tig | Ø 2-300 mm Kev kam rau siab ± 0.005mm |
Shafts, fittings, bushings, connectors |
| Swiss-Tom Tig | 0.5-32 hli | Micro precision qhov chaw, cov khoom kho mob |
| Hlau EDM | ± 0.003 hli | Hardened qhov chaw, zoo slots, tooling |
| Khoom siv | Aluminium 6061/7075, steel 1018/1045, stainless 304/316/17-4, titanium Gr2 / Gr5, tooj liab, tooj dag, engineering plastics | Cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj (MTR) muaj |
| Nto Finishing | Anodizing (Type II / III), hmoov txheej, hlaws blasting, polishing, electroplating, dub oxide | RoHS-cov kev xaiv ua raws |
| Zoo & Kev Tshuaj Xyuas | CMM daim ntawv qhia qhov ntev, FAI (AS9102), CofC, ISO 9001 system | Tag nrho traceability ntawm kev thov |
Xauv Q4 machining tus nqi ua ntej txhuas thawb los ntawm
Upload koj STEP lossis IGES cov ntaub ntawv thiab tau txais ib daim ntawv cog lus nrog cov kab - cov khoom tawg, ua cov sij hawm xaiv -, thiab DFM tawm tswv yim pub dawb - hauv 24 teev.
