Nqe Snapshot - Cuaj hlis 18 Kaw
| Benchmark | Tseeb | Lub lis piam hloov | Nyeem ntawv rau cov neeg yuav khoom |
|---|---|---|---|
| LME tooj liab 3M | $14,562/t | +2.26% WoW | Dip feem ntau zoo dua; tshiab 2026 siab thaj chaw |
| LME aluminium 3M | $3,300/t | +1.44% WoW | Net zoo tshaj li ob lub lis piam; pem teb tsis zoo |
| LME zinc 3M | $3,940.5/t | +1.53% WoW | Plating nqi nyem thim rov qab |
| LME npib tsib xee 3M | $16,235/t | -1.42% AW | Tsuas yog lub hauv paus hlau tseem easing |
| SHFE tooj liab pem hauv ntej - hli | ¥109,530/t | + ¥ 1,420 Hnub Friday | Cov nyiaj them nqi kho mob hauv tsev |
| SHFE aluminium | ¥24,385/t | +0.72% | Ingot destocking ceev |
| SHFE stainless hlau (2611) | ¥13,690/t | +¥120 | Firming nrog nickel complex mix |
| Kub-rolled coil (2701) | ¥3,302/t | −¥25 | Tsuas yog cov mos mos complex - saib hauv qab no |
| LME tooj liab stocks | 255,900 t | +9.0% WoW | Muaj rov qab, tus nqi nce lawm |
| LME cov khoom lag luam aluminium | 242,600 t | -0.7% AW | Tseem nyob ze ntau- xyoo caum qis |
| USD / CNY (nyob ze ze) | 6.6973 | RMB +123 pip WoW | Qib siab tshaj xyoo no - FX headwind ntawm USD quotes |
Hloov pauv cov ntaub ntawv, lub lim tiam ntawm Cuaj hlis 15–19, 2026. SHFE pem hauv ntej-hli tshwj tsis yog sau tseg.
Kaum-Hnub ncig mus ncig
Lub lim tiam- ntawm- lub lim tiam feem pua ntawm qhov ntsuas London: lub lim tiam ntawm Sep 8–12 piv rau lub lim tiam ntawm Sep 15–19, 2026.
Nyeem daim ntawv raws li kev ncig mus ncig, tsis yog ob qho kev sib cais. Copper muab 4.25% ntawm qhov stalled -tariff unwind, ces coj 2.26% ntawm nws ncaj nraim rov qab rau kev txhim kho Suav lub cev xav tau. Zinc poob 5.14% thiab rov qab 1.53%. Cov neeg yuav khoom uas tau tsiv mus rau hauv kaum-hnub qhov rai tau ntes cov hlau tiag tiag nkaus xwb- tus nqi pab rau lub quarter no. Cov neeg yuav khoom uas tau tos rau "tus qauv kom paub meej" tam sim no tab tom saib tus nqi tooj liab siab dua li qhov lawv xav tau.
Cov kab tseem ceeb tshaj yog aluminium. Nws ob - lub lis piam hloov pauv yogzoo: poob 1.2% ntawm lub lim tiam sib tsoo, nce 1.44% lub lim tiam no. Txhuas yeej tsis tau kho tiag tiag, vim nws yeej tsis tau nqa txoj cai them nqi rau unwind - tsuas yog lub cev tsis txaus, thiab qhov tsis txaus no tsis zoo: London cov khoom lag luam zaum ntawm 242,600 t, tseem nyob ze rau ntau - xyoo caum qis, Shanghai ingot destocking tau nrawm dua, thiab cov nyiaj ntsuab - rov qab mus rau {8}. Rau cov khw muag khoom pricing aluminium qhov chaw, cov kab hlau hauv cov lus tsocai yuav tsis muab dab tsi rov qab. Tus nqi ua haujlwm tseem yog tib txoj kab sib tham, thiab qhov ntawd tseem muaj tseeb rau lub lim tiam no.
Cov ntaub ntawv xav tau uas hloov qhov kev sib cav
Dab tsi ua rau lub lim tiam no txawv ntawm txhua lub lim tiam ua ntej ntawm kev sib tw yog tias qhov kev thov sab ntawm qhov sib npaug tsis yog qhov kev xav. Lub yim hli ntuj lub Hoobkas cov ntaub ntawv tso tawm lub lim tiam no qhia cov machined -qhov kev lag luam accelerating:
Lub yim hli ntuj 2026 xyoo-ntawm- xyoo tso zis loj hlob los ntawm ntu, ntxiv rau kev ruaj khov- cuab tam peev (Lub Ib Hlis - Lub Yim Hli). Cov txheeb cais raug tso tawm rau lub Cuaj Hlis 15, 2026.
Koj cov dej ntws ntws tawm nrawm dua li kev lag luam.Kev lag luam tus nqi- ntxiv tau nce 5.2% xyoo- ntawm - xyoo nyob rau lub Yim Hli, nce 0.7 ntsiab lus los ntawm Lub Xya Hli. Tab sis cov ntu uas yuav machined Cheebtsam tau nce ob mus rau peb zaug sai dua: cov khoom tsim khoom +12.1%, siab -tech manufacturing +16.7%, industrial robot output +34.6}%, lithium roj teeb tso zis +57.2%, 3D tshuab luam ntawv +29.9%. Yog tias koj cov khoom nkag mus rau hauv automation, lub zog lossis cov khoom siv precision, koj qhov kawg -kev ua lag luam nyob rau hauv ib qho boom, tsis yog ib tug qeeb qeeb.
Tus nqi tsim tawm yog nrawm, uas ntsuab - teeb hla - dhau.Lub Hoobkas- rooj vag Performance index tau nce 3.8% xyoo-rau- xyoo nyob rau lub Yim Hli, nthuav dav rau lwm lub hlis. Ua ke nrog cov zis nrawm, qhov no yog phau ntawv teeb tsa uas cov neeg muag khoom pib kos npe es tsis nqus. Ob -rau-plaub-lub quarter lag ntawm cov nqi nkag thiab tshuab-cov lus hais hauv khw tau yog lub ntsiab lus rov tshwm sim ntawm cov koob no; tus nqi tam sim no ib puag ncig hais tias lag yog tam sim no ua haujlwm tawm tsam cov neeg yuav khoom, tsis yog rau lawv.
Cov nyiaj tau los thiab cov lej xa tawm kaw lub voj.Cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev lag luam rau thawj xya lub hlis ntawm lub xyoo tau nce 17.6% xyoo-rau- xyoo - txhais tau hais tias cov chaw tsim khoom tau txais cov nqi nkag siab dua muaj cov chav margin kom khaws cia ntau dua li destocking. Kev lag luam khoom lag luam tau nce 19.8% nyob rau lub Yim Hli ib leeg, nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tshuab-thiab- cov khoom siv hluav taws xob xa tawm twb tau nkag rau lub quarter no. Qhov kev thov tom qab lub lim tiam no cov hlau rov qab yog xa tawm- thiab cov khoom siv- tau tsav, uas yog qhov kev xav tau hauv lub khw muag khoom.
Qhov kev zam yog kev tsim kho- txuas qhov xav tau, thiab nws poob qis. Tsau- cov peev txheej peev poob 7.2% hauv thawj yim lub hlis. Ob -kev lag luam ceev yog tiag tiag thiab nws tau nthuav dav: kev tsim khoom siab heev nthuav dav thaum kev tsim kho- sib txuas cov ntawv cog lus. Rau cov neeg yuav khoom no txiav ob txoj hauv kev - cov khw muag khoom lag luam uas ua rau cov ntu ntu (robotics, roj teeb, cov cuab yeej siv tau zoo) yuav tsis hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi thiab lub sijhawm ua haujlwm ntau dua li cov khw tseem tos kev tsim kho- txuas cov xaj xa rov qab. Paub seb hom khw twg yog qhov koj hais.
Lub counter-cim tsim nyog nkag siab.London cov khoom lag luam tooj liab tau nce 9.0% lub lim tiam no rau 255,900 tonnes - qhov nce siab tshaj plaws ntawm cov hlau hauv paus - thiab tus nqi tau nce lawm. Qhov kev sib xyaw ua ke no txwv tsis pub muaj kev tsis txaus-tsav kev sib tw: qhov no yog qhov kev thov- rov qab los uas tau xa cov hlau tau nqus los ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom lub cev sai dua li nws tuaj txog. Rau kev yuav khoom, kev thov- cov kev sib tw uas tau tsav yog qhov nyuaj rau tos, vim tias lawv xaus thaum cov ntawv xaj tau sau, tsis yog thaum lub luag haujlwm tsis raug mob. Tsis muaj txoj cai tshaj tawm los uas muab koj rov qab rau lub Cuaj Hlis 10 tus nqi.
Hlau yog tam sim no nkaus xwb Soft Complex - thiab qhov ntawd yog lub sijhawm
Thaum tooj liab, zinc thiab txhuas tag nrho sawv cev rau lub lim tiam no, ferrous mus rau lwm txoj kev - thiab yog vim li cas yog ib qho machined -ib feem neeg yuav ua hauj lwm nrog. Kub- dov coil nyob ntawm ¥ 3,302 / t nrog cov npoo npoo mills decisively tsis zoo: benchmark rebar poob ib ncig ntawm ¥ 218 / t thiab kub- dov coil poob ib ncig ¥ 69 / t. Kev poob ntawm qhov loj ntawd keeb kwm ua rau kev txiav ntau lawm thiab kev kaw haujlwm hauv lub lis piam, uas ua rau hauv pem teb nyob rau hauv tus nqi ntau dua li txuas ntxiv qhov poob. Stainless, los ntawm qhov sib txawv, firmed nrog lub dav hlau complex.
Tswv yim txhais lus:carbon- steel thiab phaj qhov chaw yog qhov chaw sib tham zoo tshaj plaws hauv kev ua lag luam tam sim no.Mills poob nyiaj, hlau ore yog drifting, thiab steel -cov chaw pabcuam xav tau ntim. Meanwhile txhua lwm yam khoom kab hauv koj daim nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv yog nce. Yog tias koj lub rooj sib dhos sib xyaw steel brackets lossis vaj tsev nrog cov khoom siv txhuas lossis cov hlau tsis muaj steel, qhov no yog lub limtiam los thawb hnyav tshaj plaws ntawm cov khoom siv steel thiab xauv lawv rau Q4 ntim ua ntej zeb txiav kom nruj rau daim ntawv lag luam.
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Nyiaj Kab Tsis muaj leej twg muab tso rau hauv daim ntawv
Ob qhov xwm txheej macro lub lim tiam no tseem ceeb rau tus nqi tsaws. Ua ntej, qhov kev txiav txim siab nyiaj txiag ntawm ntug dej hiav txwv tau tsaws raws nraim li qhov xav tau, yog li tsis muaj kev poob siab macro ua haujlwm los ntawm cov hlau complex - qhov kev sib tw yog nqa los ntawm lub cev xav tau, uas ua rau nws ruaj khov dua, tsis tsawg. Qhov thib ob, tus yuan kaw lub lim tiam ntawm 6.6973 rau duas, nws qib siab tshaj plaws xyoo no, txaus siab rau 123 pips hauv tsib hnub.
Rau cov neeg yuav khoom thoob ntiaj teb, qhov kev hloov pauv no ua haujlwm tiag tiag: ib qho kev tsocai hauv USD tawm tsam kev txhawb nqa RMB yog ib qho kev tsocai uas nws cov paj tau nyob ntsiag to ntawm tus muag khoom sab. Cia siab tias cov lus tshaj tawm nyob rau lub lim tiam tom ntej yuav yog qhov qis dua hauv USD lossis luv dua - hnub tshaj li niaj zaus. Yog tias koj tau txais daim ntawv tsocai nrog 30-hnub siv tau uas koj siv rau 60 lossis 90, tus nqi pauv yog vim li cas. Ib qho kev txo qis yog tsim nyog nce ncaj qha rau hauv kev sib tham: nug rau qhov kev tsocai hauv USD nrog rau qhov rov- qhov kev lees paub yog tias khub txav mus dhau qhov kev pom zoo - cov neeg muag khoom tuav cov khoom muag ntawm cov khoom siv niaj hnub no feem ntau yuav lees txais cov qauv, vim tias nws muaj feem cuam tshuam ntau dua li hloov nws.
Tsim nyog ceeb toom rau lub sijhawm: lub Cuaj Hlis nyeem ntawv ntiag tug -sector manufacturing survey lands at the end of this month, and it is the last hard demand datapoint before Q4 contracting season. Lub Yim Hli qhov kev tso tawm tau pom qhov kev nyeem ntawv muaj zog tshaj plaws hauv lub hlis nrog cov txiaj ntsig nthuav dav rau cuaj lub hlis sib law liag. Qhov thib ob muaj zog luam tawm yuav tshem tawm qhov kawg "tos thiab saib" kev sib cav los ntawm ib qho kev yuav khoom daim ntawv qhia hnub tseem qhib rau Q4 ntim.
Yuav Ua Li Cas Lub Limtiam no, los ntawm Khoom
Copper thiab tooj dag qhov chaw:lub re- qhov rais hais tawm los ntawm lub Cuaj Hlis 10 dip tau kaw lawm. Yog tias koj qhov kev tsocai tsis tau cim tseg, tsis txhob cia siab tias nws yuav yog tam sim no - cov hlau rov qab los saum nws txoj kev ua ntej -dip. Cov qauv tshiab quotes ntawm tooj liab qhov hnyav ntawm qhov chaw nyob nrog cov lus rov pib dua, yog li kev kho yav tom ntej ntws los rau koj tau txais.
Zinc{0}}plated thiab galvanized qhov chaw:plating- tus nqi txo tau siv sijhawm ib lub lis piam. Kho ib qho plating-cov lus hnyav ua rau lub lim tiam dhau los uas tsis muaj hmoo, tsis tuaj yeem rov ua dua, thiab rov ua dua - hauv qab ntawm qib tam sim no.
Aluminium qhov chaw: tsis muaj hlau nyem los; ob -lub lim tiam net txav tau zoo thiab cov khoom muag hais tias nws nyob li ntawd. Koj lub zog yog tus nqi ua haujlwm thiab tus ntaiv batch - ob qho tib si tseem sib tham tau thaum kev sib tw rau kev txiav txim tseem muaj.
Carbon steel thiab phaj qhov chaw: lub soft complex. Thawb tus nqi thiab xauv Q4 ntim tam sim no, ua ntej qhov tsis zoo zeb margins ua rau kev txiav ntau lawm uas yuav tsim hauv pem teb.
Stainless qhov chaw: firming nrog cov hlau complex; cov kab npib tsib xee yog qhov kev nkag siab yooj yim nkaus xwb. Quote nrog tib qhov pib dua -clause logic li tooj.
Tag nrho Q4 ntim: qhov dhau-los ntawm qhov rais kaw los ntawm ob qhov kawg - cov ntaub ntawv nce, thov cov ntaub ntawv muaj zog, PPI accelerating. Kos npe rau lub hlis no tus nqi koj Q4 tsim rau lub lim tiam dhau los ua ntej cov pov thawj rau cov cim tau dhau los.
Peb lub peev xwm ntawm Machining
| Muaj peev xwm | Specification | Yam Yam |
|---|---|---|
| 3-Axis CNC Milling | Txog li 1,050 × 650 × 600 mm Kev kam rau siab ± 0.01mm |
Brackets, vaj tse, daim hlau, enclosures |
| 5-Axis CNC Milling | Mus txog ø600 mm Kev kam rau siab ± 0.005mm |
Cov impellers, qhov chaw ntawm cov qauv, complex geometry |
| CNC tig | Ø 2-300 mm Kev kam rau siab ± 0.005mm |
Shafts, fittings, bushings, connectors |
| Swiss-Tom Tig | 0.5-32 hli | Micro precision qhov chaw, cov khoom kho mob |
| Hlau EDM | ± 0.003 hli | Hardened qhov chaw, zoo slots, tooling |
| Khoom siv | Aluminium 6061/7075, carbon steel 1018/1045, alloy steel 4140, stainless 304/316/17-4PH, titanium Gr2 / Gr5, tooj liab, tooj dag, tooj dag | Cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj (MTR) muaj |
| Nto Finishing | Anodizing (Hom II / III), hmoov txheej, hlaws blasting, polishing, zinc plating, dub oxide | RoHS-cov kev xaiv ua raws |
| Zoo & Kev Tshuaj Xyuas | CMM daim ntawv qhia qhov ntev, FAI (AS9102), CofC, ISO 9001 system | Tag nrho traceability ntawm kev thov |
Nqe Q4 ntim ua ntej dhau -los ntawm kev kaw tiav
Upload koj STEP lossis IGES cov ntaub ntawv thiab tau txais ib daim ntawv cog lus nrog ib kab - cov khoom tawg uas cais cov khoom ntawm cov nqi ua, siv tau rau cov nqi hlau tam sim no thiab cov nqi pauv - ntxiv rau DFM tawm tswv yim pub dawb, hauv 24 teev.
